Apologetics, Global Warming, News, News, Studies, z6

The Arctic melt myth: Seven years ago Al Gore predicted the Arctic would be ice free — he was wrong


Showing the dramatic increase in the size of the Polar Ice Caps between August 29, 2014 and August 29, 2014. Base image University of Illinois Cryosphere project

Showing the dramatic increase in the size of the Polar Ice Caps between August 29, 2014 and August 29, 2014. Base image University of Illinois Cryosphere project

In 2007 — during his Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech — Al Gore predicted the ice cap of the Northern arctic would disappear because of man-made global warming. He even went one step further and said the ice would be gone in seven years — by 2014.

Ice free according to Gore meant an ice bed of less than 1 million sq kilometers, which means there would be just a fringe of ice along the coast lines.

However, in an ironic twist, for a second year in a row the Arctic ice bed has increased in size, not shrunk. This despite record amounts of CO2 being passed into the atmosphere each year, which Gore says is causing the ice melt.

The freeze over started in 2012 and in 2013, it caught a number of sailing vessels off guard. They were expecting to sail through the northern Arctic passage way unhindered, but instead were caught in ice forcing them to abandon their ships.

According to an article in the Daily Mail, since 2012, the Arctic ice bed has increased between 43% to 63%. These numbers were based on two satellite surveys of the arctic ice mass.  Though they vary in terms of amount, the two surveys agreed on one thing — there has been a dramatic increase in the size of the Polar ice cap.

  1. The NASA-funded US National Snow and Ice Data Center calculated that as of August 25, 2014, the Arctic ice bed was 5.62 million square kilometers in size. This was the highest it has been since 2006 and showed a 1.71 million square kilometres size increase (43%) since 2012.
  2. The Danish Meteorological Institute which has similarly studied the Arctic ice bed says the increase was much larger. It says there has been as 63% increase. According to its calculations, the ice bed sits at 4.4 million square kilometers up from 2.7 million square kilometers just two years ago.

Leeds University’s Andrew Shepherd says perhaps the most significant event is that the ice bed is also thickening making it more resistant to melt. In a statement made August 29, 2014, Shepherd said:

‘It is clear from the measurements we have collected that the Arctic sea ice has experienced a significant recovery in thickness over the past year.

‘It seems that an unusually cool summer in 2013 allowed more ice to survive through to last winter. This means that the Arctic sea ice pack is thicker and stronger than usual, and this should be taken into account when making predictions of its future extent.’

This contrasts with Al Gore’s 2007 Nobel Prize acceptance speech prediction, when he said:

“The [arctic] ice cap is falling off a cliff, it could be completely gone in summer in as little as 7 years from now.”

In 2000, man-made global warming scientist Dr. David Viner made a similar prediction. He said there would be no snow and that kids would have no idea what it was. He was also wrong.

University of Illinois’s Cryosphere comparison

Are you interested in checking out the Arctic polar ice cap increase for yourself? Then try out the University of Illinois’s Cryosphere project. It has tracked the polar ice cap size via satellite since 1979. It allows you to compare the Polar ice cap size between two dates. The image at the beginning of this article is derived using this tool.

Click here to do your own comparison.

 

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16 Comments

  1. I thought Al was a smart dude. Heck, he invented the internet didn’t he? How could he make such a bone head prediction?

  2. Pingback: Postmodern science and objective reality | The Cripplegate

  3. Pingback: Ciencia Posmoderna y la Realidad Objetiva | El Evangelio Segun Jesucristo

  4. MorinMoss says

    Here’s what Gore said in at his Nobel acceptance speech:

    ” Last September 21st, as the Northern Hemisphere tilted away from the sun, scientists reported with unprecedented alarm that the North Polar ice cap is, in their words, “falling off a cliff.”
    One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as seven years. Seven years from now.”

    So there’s an implied estimate of 2014-2029, of which the lower is clearly not right.
    But the upper one is similar to what Adm David Tittle has been saying for years, that there could potentially be up to 4 weeks of ice-free conditions in the Arctic summer by the 2030s.

    So while, 2030 may seem far away, that’s much earlier than IPCC estimates where Arctic summer ice might last beyond 2050 or almost to 2100

    • The ice is returning not only in the arctic, but the antarctic as well.

      Global warming stopped over 17 years ago. Some climatologists are suggesting we have entered a global cooling period.

      Even the New York Times which has been a big promoter of man-made global warming acknowledges the warming stopped nearly two decades ago.

      Yet we continue to pour record amounts of C02 emissions into the atmosphere each year. This tells us C02 is not impacting warming as some would have us believe.

      Read: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217286/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-reveals-Met-Office-report-quietly-released–chart-prove-it.html

      The earth has gone through periods of warming and cooling for hundreds of years, to suddenly blame it on human activity doesn’t make sense.

      • MorinMoss says

        Antarctic SEA was always predicted to increase due to the nature of the continent. The Arctic is a sea surrounded by land masses; the Antarctic is a continent surrounded by ocean. The dynamics are not the same.
        In any case, even if Antarctic ice is growing, that doesn’t offset what’s happening up north. The southern ice, regardless of its extent, melts away almost completely every year.

        “Global warming stopped ……” – nope, it’s a matter of understanding what global warming means – it’s an increase in the total heat content of the system NOT merely that of land surface temps.

        But even that is idea wrong as explained below by a statistician
        http://tamino.wordpress.com/2014/01/30/global-temperature-the-post-1998-surprise/

      • When it comes to predicting the man-made global warming scientists have been having a tough go of it.

        In 2000, a man-made global warming expert Dr. David Vinner predicted children wouldn’t even know what snow looked like because of global warming. He was wrong.

        At the time, Dr. Vinner was a senior research scientist at England’s University of East Anglia’s climate research unit – the major research arm of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. They are the driving force on the international stage for stopping global warming.

        Since the earth hasn’t been warming for almost 20 years, they have been coming up with numerous theories on why the warming has stopped, because we are still pouring record amounts of C02 into the atmosphere each year.

        Despite going with the obvious, that C02 has little no impact on global warming, they have come up with numerous theories. One theory is the oceans are holding the heat. However, if that is the case why are both arctic and Antarctic icecaps refreezing???

        It doesn’t make sense.

        Look at this satellite image (September 21, 2014) recording the surface temperature of the oceans — the blue represents areas colder than normal for the time of the year. If the heat is hiding in the oceans, it is doing a great job.

        Satellite image of sufrace temperature of oceans.

        You can see the source page here: http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_daily.php?plot=ssa&inv=0&t=cur

      • MorinMoss says

        The ocean heat seems to be quite easy to spot on the map below:

        Perhaps you can find one more to your liking among the many offered at
        http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

        “Since the earth hasn’t been warming for almost 20 years,”
        Not accurate. See below for a statistician’s explanation on why that point-of-view is wrong. I think you overlooked it in my previous post so here it is again.

        http://tamino.wordpress.com/2014/01/30/global-temperature-the-post-1998-surprise/

        “One theory is the oceans are holding the heat. However, if that is the case why are both arctic and Antarctic icecaps refreezing???”

        ” Antarctic SEA ice has been increasing for some time (as was predicted) but it melts away almost entirely every year.
        Antarctica’s ice is mostly land-based, and huge.
        Despite that, it’s losing 10s of billions of tons of ice each year but that’s only a small fraction of the total. However, that….is….not….increasing.

        As for the Arctic, the overall recent trend, since the late ’70s is a sharp decline, with a high potential of a few weeks of ice free conditions in summer by 2030; some say there’s a chance it could happen much sooner.

        One thing to keep in mind is there are 3 measurements of sea ice – extent, area & volume. Only extent is widely reported on but accurate measures of volume is what will reveal if there is any real “refreezing”, by which I assume you meant a consistent net increase.

        Because of weather & circulation patterns, you’re not likely to see a record low extent every year but a few recent years with an extent greater than some of the recent record lows is NOT a “recovery” especially if VOLUME is still dropping.

        “David Vinner…..”… ?? So he was wrong about that. So? Everyone gets things wrong and global climate is complex. But the world is accumulating heat and that can’t be absorbed indefinitely or simply vanish.

      • Well, even the UN who started the man-made global warming agenda is admitting there has been no global warming for over 17 years. This was reported by the BBC who has been a strong promoter of man-made global warming in the past.

        Global warming pause ‘central’ to IPCC climate report

        There have been hundreds of articles written on the fact there has been no global warming for nearly 17+ years, despite record amounts of C02 pouring into the atmosphere each year. Here is a sampling of just a few of them:

        Twenty-year hiatus in rising temperatures has climate scientists puzzled: The Australian

        Climate Scientist Who Got It Right Predicts 20 More Years of Global Cooling


        NASA scientist says pause in global warming just a ‘coincidence’

        But what is perhaps even more disturbing is some global warming scientists who have witnessed this warming stoppage have been caught actually doctoring the temperature numbers:

        Australian Meteorologists Caught Fudging Numbers

        Even the respected London Times has noticed problems related to this..

        Here is the front page of the London Times earlier this spring:

        Front page of The Times

        I guess time will tell who is right on this.

      • MorinMoss says

        A slower rate of warming of SURFACE temps is NOT a “pause”, “hiatus” or “standstill”. Those terms aren’t being used by climate scientists.
        All but 1 or 2 of the warmest years globally on record have been during the “period of no warming” as the deniers & contrarians call it.
        AND that period also has some of the most dramatic melting of glaciers, ice sheets and sea ice.

        It takes a LOT of heat to melt ice. Here’s a little experiment you can try.
        Take a block of ice and add just enough heat to melt it WITHOUT raising its temp above 0 deg C.
        Now take the equivalent amount of water that’s already at 20 deg C and add enough heat to bring it just to the boiling point.
        Which is greater and by how much?

      • Well we sill see where it ends.

        1. There has been no warming for over 17 years, even the UN acknowledges this. The English government’s MET office who has been strong proponent of man-made global Warming finally admits there has been no global warming for years. Read: Global warming stopped 16 years ago, reveals Met Office report quietly released… and here is the chart to prove it.

        2. The man-made global warming experts are very concerned about the 17 year stop. To date, 52 theories have been put forward as to why the warming has stopped. Why all these theories, if this wasn’t a problem? If you can’t explain the pause, then how can you explain the cause of the warming.

        3. The Antarctic Ice bed is increasing and breaking records. Read this article from the Washington Post: Antarctic sea ice hits 35 year record

        4. There is still snow when the man-made global warming experts predicted there would be none: Read: Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past. The man who predicted this is a main global warming expert with the UN. If he is wrong on this, what else is he wrong on. Read also: Top climate scientists admit global warming forecasts were wrong

        5. The earth has gone through periods of warming and cooling for centuries. Where the disagreement is, is on the cause. While the global warming side blames man, others say the warming and cooling trend is due to natural forces. This explains why the earth’s warming has stopped despite records amounts of C02 still being poured into the atmosphere. If C02 was the cause, the earth would be warming. Read: New peer-reviewed paper: UN overestimated climate sensitivity to CO2 or West Coast warming linked to naturally occurring changes: LA Times

        6. The arctic ice bed is increasing in size. The following satellite image compares the size of the ice bed from August 25, 2013 to August 25, 2014. This compares summer date with summer date.
        Arctic ice bed grows in size

        These are the facts. Yet the man-made global warming camp is still in denial about what has been really happening over the last 20 years.

      • MorinMoss says

        You’re just repeating the same well worn talking points without looking at the evidence.
        ” There has been no warming for over 17 years, even the UN acknowledges this”
        The UN are not climatologists Their opinion on climate means as much as my barber’s opinion on cosmology.

        I take it you still haven’t looked at the Tamino link regarding the temps post-’98?

        “Antarctic ICE BED” – what kind of doublespeak is that??
        Antarctic SEA ICE has been show slight increases for some time BUT…….I…will…..say….this….slowly…..so ……you…..un…der….stand
        it …..melts….COMPLETELY every year.

        From your link to http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/10310712/Top-climate-scientists-admit-global-warming-forecasts-were-wrong.html

        “The “summary for policymakers” of the report, seen by the Mail on Sunday, states that the world is warming at a rate of 0.12C per decade since 1951, compared to a prediction of 0.13C per decade in their last assessment published in 2007.

        So the error in their prediction was 0.01 degC?? That’s well within the error bars.

        You do understand that “natural variability” is driven by heat or the lack of it, right? If you introduce extra heat into a complex system, there will be repercussions. Figuring out what & when takes a lot of work but heat simply doesn’t disappear.

        “The arctic ice bed is increasing in size.” – get it through your head, use a nailgun if needed. AREA,…..EXTENT….VOLUME.. all 3 have to be increasing for several years or longer to establish a trend when the overall pattern for 30 years has been one of precipitous decline.

        The “increasing” argument is the same stupidity spouted when extent rebounded in 2006 back to 2004 levels after the drop of 2005.

        Then along came 2007 – HOLY HELL, where did all the ice go?
        But deniers got the warm fuzzies when 2009 & 2010 had a much higher extent.

        Until …..TWO THOUSAND TWELVE….another holy hell moment.
        And now? RECOVERY!!!!!!!! WOOT!

        (But pay no attention to the graphs over time of VOLUME)

        Have you worked out how much extra heat was needed to melt all ithe volume of ice the world’s cecaps & glaciers have lost in just the past decade?
        It’s rather a lot.

      • MorinMoss says

        Forgot to add – your last link about the “increase in two years” is utterly disingenuous bullshit. If you’re only going by extent, there’s been essentially NO CHANGE from last year to this.
        Go back all the way to the beginning of June and compare – the extent for 2013 & 2014 have been almost the same, less than a 2-3% difference all the way to the minimum extent.

        http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

        How is that at all indicative of a “RECOVERY”. Looks like your global cooling has already reached a pause, hiatus or standstill.

      • It is obvious, I am not going to change your mind, and you are not going to change mine. I appreciated your comments.

        However, I am going to bring this thread to a close for now.

        I am sure I will be writing other articles on this issue, so we can start it again, if you ever stop by.

        There are two fundamental issues here:

        I think everyone agrees the earth went through a warming period, but there is also evidence that this warming stopped over 17 years ago. This leaves the big question, why did it stop warming if we are still pouring record amounts of C02 into the atmosphere? Those of the man-made warming opinion believe other factors are limiting the effects of C02. The other side says this is evidence that the effects of C02 on global warming are minimal.

        The second issue is what caused the warming in the first place. One side argues that humans have significantly impacted this warming cycle through C02 emissions. The other side says, that the earth has gone through warming and cooling periods over the centuries, and this is just part of the earth’s natural cycle — probably related to the Sun’s cycles.

        I think both of us have provided information and links that will give people lots of information if they want to explore this topic more.

        Thanks again for your participation.

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