Apologetics, Global Warming, z5
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How 38 became 100: The Global Warming math


Snow in Seattle, but they promised no snow! Photo: Chuck.Taylor/Foter/CC BY-ND

Snow in Seattle, but they promised no snow! Photo: Chuck.Taylor/Foter/CC BY-ND

[by Dean Smith] You may have heard the recent announcement by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) that 2014 was the warmest year on record.

Though news organizations broadcast the story around the world, the Daily Mail reported there was a bit of fine print and funny math missing from GISS’ news release sent out Friday, January 17th, suggesting all is not what it seems.

First, though the news release blared ‘2014 was the warmest year on record’ — leaving the impression it was a 100% certainty — there was an unannounced margin of error in their prediction, a large one actually. GISS was only 38% sure they were right. This meant there was a 62% likelihood they were wrong.

But 38% became a 100% prediction.

Secondly, the amount of increase putting 2014 into the record books, even if correct, was only in two hundreds of a degree or .02%. Other climatologists laughed at the announcement suggesting such increase, even if it could be measured on a world-wide scale, was so insignificant it was meaningless.

In an interview with Breitbart, MIT meteorology professor Dr. Richard Lindzen said:

‘Two-100ths of a degree is ludicrous. Anyone who starts crowing about those numbers shows that they’re putting spin on nothing.”

The Berkley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) program, which has 10 times the temperature stations as Goddard, only registered an increase of one hundredth of a degree or .01. And it wasn’t a hundred percent sure it was right, but at least admitted it.

A report by BEST stated:

“…‘Therefore it is impossible to conclude from our analysis which of 2014, 2010, or 2005 was actually the warmest year… the Earth’s average temperature for the past decade has changed very little.”

Basically temperatures have plateaued — the warming has stopped despite record amounts of Co2 being poured into the atmosphere each year.  Dr. David Whitehorse, of the Global Warming Policy Forum, took it a bit further and said there has been no global warming for over 17 years.

This disconnect with temperatures and C02 emissions shows the gas, necessary for life, is not having an impact on earth temperatures some thought it should.

Is it possible the warming and cooling of earth is simply part of its natural cycles?

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