The number of COVID cases in Canada is now averaging about 3,000 a day and has been declining for a couple of months. So, how is the government of Prime Minister Trudeau going to justify more lockdowns?
Enter Dr Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief health officer, who came to Trudeau’s rescue at a recent news conference by projecting with the magic of computer modelling that Canada would be experiencing 20,000 cases of COVID a day by March.
Predictably, most of the main stream media bought the numbers. But many are starting to question these projections and some even dared to ask Dr. Tam a couple of embarrassing questions about her stats at the news conference.
The Toronto Sun explains:
Earlier in the day, Dr. Theresa Tam presented new modelling forecasting COVID-19 cases. The slide deck presents charts about how cases and deaths across Canada are significantly declining
However, when it comes to forecasting for the future, Tam presented a graph that showed cases of COVID-19 immediately shooting up like a rocket ship in an almost vertical line.
It shows Canada going from its current count of around 2,300 cases per day to over 20,000 daily cases by the second week of March. The exact figure is unclear because the line shoots so high it exits the top of the graph.
The graph left infectious diseases experts scratching their heads. “What are the underlying assumptions?” Dr. Martha Fulford, an assistant professor at McMaster University and infectious diseases physician at Hamilton Health Sciences, told the Sun.
When it comes to computer modelling, they only spill out data based on what assumptions and biases have been entered.
Meet Neil Ferguson, the man behind the computer models that led to the lockdowns
Of course, it was the computer models of Neil Ferguson from the UK’s Imperial College that started the lockdowns when his computer models estimated 2.2 million deaths in the US from COVID and 500,000 COVID deaths in the UK.
Here is how computer experts described the computer coding behind Ferguson’s model, which they said could not spew out the same result if you entered the same assumptions twice in a row. In other words, if Ferguson’s model was asked what 1 + 1 was, it gave a different answer every time. READ: Coding that led to lockdown was ‘totally unreliable’ and a ‘buggy mess’, say experts AND: Code Review of Ferguson’s Model
And this article provides a list of Neil Ferguson’s other failed predictions. READ: Who is Neil Ferguson, the Imperial College London virus modeller and Government scientific adviser