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Putting Italy's coronavirus 'pandemic' in perspective

Rome, Italy

Italy is considered by many to be the nation the hardest hit by the Coronavirus outside of China, and the government has initiated a form of quarantine on the country’s 60 million people.

According to Italy’s latest reports (as of March 18, 2020), 2,503 people have died from Coronavirus and an estimated 31,500 people have been officially diagnosed with the disease.

Though this suggests a mortality rate of nearly 8%, this percentage may be suspect as a report published in the Independent revealed that at least 45% of the people with coronavirus are showing minimal symptoms, with one in ten having no symptoms at all. So undoubtedly thousands of people have had the virus but saw no need to go to the doctor and were not diagnosed.

But Italian authorities also noted that for the first time, they are seeing a decline in the number of new cases being reported on a daily basis, suggesting the pandemic has peaked.

Nevertheless, we need to put some perspective on what is happening in Italy. I am basing this on an article published in Italian on the Agenzia Nova website, that was translated into English by Google Translate, so it may have lost something in the translation.

It involved a March 13, 2020, news conference with Silvio Brusaferro, the president of the Higher Institute of Health (HIOH), whose group examined the medical data of just over 100 people who died from the Coronavirus in Italy. This survey revealed the following information:

  1. Of this group, only two people had actually died of the Coronavirus. The remaining had compromised health systems that included other chronic diseases and medical issues. In other words, if these people had been healthy it was highly unlikely they would have died. Brusaferro added that HIOH has not completely ruled out the possibility that the two listed as dying from the Coronavirus had other medical issues.
  2. The average age of the people in this group who died from the Coronavirus is 80.3 years of age.
  3. The people who died in their survey group ranged in age from 70 to 89.
  4. 74.2 percent of the people who died are male.

Brusaferro added that HIOH plans to examine more medical files of the deceased and release the data as it becomes available, but concluded that “the populations most at risk are fragile, carriers of multiple diseases.”

According to a study by Oxford University published in the Daily Mail, there are several reasons why Italy has been hard hit with the Coronavirus.

With 22% of its population over the age of 65, Italy has the highest concentration of elderly people in Europe and the second highest in the world.

Secondly, Italians tend to live in multi generational families, with the grand parents living with their children and grand children often in smaller homes. Though still living at home, the grand children often commute to work and school and of course can bring the disease home without being overly sick themselves.

The study noted that hardest hit areas of Italy include rural areas around Milan and in Lombardi that have older populations.

Similar to what is being reported in Italy, the Daily Mail said that the number of new Coronavirus cases being reported daily in England is also on the decline.

In His description of what would take place during the end times in Matthew 24, Jesus gave two pieces of advice:


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