I love coincidences. The same week that NBC News did a report on how Sweden’s decision not to implement a full lockdown in response to COVID may have been the best approach, the Daily Mail took another look at Neil Ferguson, the UK epidemiologist who panicked the world into implementing lockdowns.
Using what some claim was antiquated and “buggy” modelling software, Ferguson predicted there would 500,000 deaths in England and upwards of 2.2 million deaths in the US if there was no lockdown.
He was wrong. He wasn’t even close. And even though others were warning that Ferguson’s number were wildly exaggerated, panicked politicians refused to listen.
The Daily Mail discusses a recent book written by Tom Bower:
Downing Street was panicked into a full national lockdown after its scientific advisers Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance were given doomsday mortality projections by Imperial College’s Neil Ferguson, an explosive new biography of Boris Johnson by investigative author Tom Bower reveals.
Bower tells how a critical meeting of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) on February 25 was presented with the ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ from Professor Ferguson under which 80 per cent of Britons would be infected and the death-toll would be 510,000 people.
The author writes: ‘This was an improvement on Ferguson’s earlier assessment that between 2 per cent and 3 per cent would die – up to 1.5 million deaths. Even with mitigation measures, he said, the death toll could be 250,000 and the existing intensive care units would be overwhelmed eight times over.
‘Neither Vallance nor Whitty outrightly challenged Ferguson’s model or predictions. By contrast, in a series of messages from Michael Levitt, a Stanford University professor who would correctly predict the pandemic’s initial trajectory, Ferguson was warned that he had overestimated the potential death toll by ‘ten to 12 times’.’
And with politicians still trying to implement lockdowns in various countries and states, maybe it is time to review some previous articles written about the man who has become known as Professor Lockdown.
This was not the first time, Ferguson has made a failed doomsday prediction. READ: Coronavirus shock: How Neil Ferguson was bankrolled by major pharmaceutical companies
READ: Coding that led to lockdown was ‘totally unreliable’ and a ‘buggy mess’, say experts (Note this article is behind a paywall, but the byline reads, “The code, written by Professor Neil Ferguson and his team at Imperial College London, was impossible to read, scientists claim.”
People were warning about Ferguson’s quirky computer modelling software back in May. READ: Code Review of Ferguson’s Model
There was a recent recant, of sorts. READ: Neil Ferguson whose grim warnings prompted Boris Johnson to order TOTAL LOCKDOWN admits Sweden may have suppressed Covid-19 to the same level but WITHOUT draconian measures AND Architect of lockdown policy admits Sweden achieved similar outcomes without lockdown